The article discusses Arthur Hayes's market outlook, where he forecasts a significant rebound in dollar liquidity by 2026, which he believes will reignite momentum for Bitcoin. Hayes argues that Bitcoin's weak performance in 2025 was a "straightforward dollar-credit story," rather than a referendum on crypto narratives. He has been adding risk to his portfolio via Strategy (MSTR), Japan’s Metaplanet, and Zcash (ZEC), anticipating that US dollar liquidity will inflect higher after a year where Bitcoin lagged behind both gold and US tech stocks.

Hayes frames 2025 as a period where the traditional cross-asset comparisons for Bitcoin, as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for US tech, diverged. He explains that Bitcoin behaved "as expected" under tightening conditions, while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different reasons despite falling dollar liquidity. The divergence, according to Hayes, sets the stage for 2026, where he believes Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. "Bitcoin and the Nasdaq rise when dollar liquidity expands. The only problem is the recent divergence," he writes, emphasizing dollar liquidity as the primary driver to track.

His 2026 outlook is predicated on a sharp rebound in dollar credit creation, identifying three key channels: a growing Fed balance sheet through Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), increased commercial-bank lending into "strategic industries," and lower mortgage rates catalyzed by policy-driven demand for mortgage-backed securities. He claims that quantitative tightening (QT) will have faded as a dominant headwind by late 2025, with RMP expanding the balance sheet by at least $40 billion per month. Hayes also points to accelerated bank credit creation in 4Q25 and potential government-backed directives to deploy significant funds toward mortgage-backed securities, which could lower mortgage rates and stimulate credit.

Hayes ties these factors together, concluding that if liquidity turns, Bitcoin should follow. He notes, "Bitcoin … and dollar liquidity bottomed around the same time," suggesting that the next major leg depends more on renewed credit expansion than on sentiment.

As a "degen speculator," Hayes says Maelstrom is "nearly fully invested" but still seeks "MOAR risk" for upside convexity. He is long Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet for levered exposure to Bitcoin via corporate balance sheets, noting that their valuations relative to Bitcoin are at low points. He states a key condition: "If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside."

Finally, Hayes highlights continued accumulation of Zcash (ZEC). He dismisses the departure of developers at Electric Coin Company (ECC) as non-bearish, expressing confidence that they will develop "better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity." He views this situation as an "opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands."