Bitcoin Returns Mirror Late-2022 Levels Seen Before 67% Rally: Santiment

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted how the average Bitcoin returns of the buyers from the past year are looking similar to late 2022. 365-Day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Plunged Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its Realized Cap. The Realized Cap here refers to a capitalization model that calculates the total value of the cryptocurrency by assuming that the ‘real’ value of each token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In short, this metric represents the sum of the capital stored in the asset by all investors. In short, this metric represents the sum of the capital stored in the asset by all investors.

Since the market cap is the amount held by investors in the present, its comparison with the Realized Cap in the MVRV Ratio tells us about the profit-loss status of the overall network. When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the investors are in a state of net unrealized loss. On the other hand, it being under the mark suggests the dominance of losses. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific investor cohorts: 30-day and 365-day buyers. The MVRV Ratios of these groups naturally tell us about the average returns for coins purchased over the past month and past year, respectively.

Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day MVRV Ratios for Bitcoin over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is currently sitting at the +2.8% mark, suggesting short-term buyers are in a state of slight profit. This could raise the chances of a profit-taking selloff occurring, but perhaps not by much as these returns aren’t significant enough to fall inside what the analytics firm defines as the “Danger Zone.” The picture is a bit different when it comes to the profitability of the 1-year investors. From the chart, it’s visible that the MVRV Ratio has plunged to the -26.6% mark for this group, which is well past the boundary for the “Opportunity Zone.” Interestingly, the last time that the indicator fell to such a low level was at the end of the 2022 Bitcoin bear market. “When the 365-day MVRV was severely negative following the FTX collapse, $BTC proceeded to rise +67% in the following 3 months,” noted Santiment. That said, while the current value is similar to back then, the structure itself more resembles that of mid-2022, since the metric has only recently plummeted to these levels, while in late 2022, it was on the way back up. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $70,500, down nearly 1% over the last seven days.

Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance

Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern that could lead to a 54% increase following this year’s US midterm elections. New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin price and the S&P 500. Will Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns? The research shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three previously recorded midterm years. Binance’s analysis further reveals that midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&P 500—marking them as the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.

Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market’s leading cryptocurrency has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average decline of 56% during midterm years. The research emphasizes what they call “The Post-Election Opportunity,” as once election results are settled and uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly. The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for potential Bitcoin gains as well. If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its previous all-time highs during previous bear market cycles.

With Bitcoin’s bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly $58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may already have been reached. Is The End Of The Bear Market Near? NewsBTC reported Wednesday that CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin might be in the final stages of its bear market, especially after it dropped to $59,900 on February 6. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, eyeing the key resistance level at $73,000. This phase may indicate a final accumulation stage of the bear cycle, which is often succeeded by substantial recoveries, albeit not in a straight path. With this pattern in mind, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post-midterm elections in the US could propel the cryptocurrency back toward $107,000 for the first time since November 2025.