Bitcoin Under Pressure: Price Dips Below $100K Amidst Sustained Long-Term Holder Sales
Bitcoin Under Pressure: Price Dips Below $100K Amidst Sustained Long-Term Holder Sales
Bitcoin has recently dipped below the $100,000 mark, facing significant bearish sentiment and technical indicators pointing to further potential downsides. Analysts note a fresh decline and a strong bearish trend with key resistance levels proving difficult to overcome.
Adding to the market pressure, research from Fidelity Digital Assets suggests that long-term holders (HODLers) are contributing to a 'slow bleed' of supply. This ongoing, gradual selling, potentially influenced by year-end tax considerations and investor fatigue from underperformance compared to traditional assets, marks a divergence from the sharp distribution seen in past bull cycles. Despite these selling dynamics, some positive fundamental developments are noted, though they have yet to translate into decisive upside price action.
Bitcoin's Price Action: Bearish Momentum Dominates
Article 1 highlights Bitcoin's struggle to maintain positive momentum, with its price failing to recover above $104,000 and subsequently declining below significant psychological and technical thresholds, including the $100,000 level. The cryptocurrency is currently trading under $100,000, with a bearish trend line forming on hourly charts and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average acting as a key resistance. Immediate support levels are identified at $98,500 and $98,000, with forecasts suggesting potential drops towards $95,000 and even $92,500 if resistance around $102,200 is not breached. Technical indicators further reinforce this bearish outlook; the Hourly MACD is gaining pace in the bearish zone, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD is below the 50 level, signaling strong selling pressure.
Unpacking Bitcoin's Selling Pressure: Insights from Fidelity Digital Assets
Article 2 delves into the underlying reasons for Bitcoin's sustained price pressure, despite visible buying from spot ETPs and corporate entities. Chris Kuiper, CFA, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, points to long-term holders as a primary source of market supply. His analysis, drawing on Glassnode data concerning the 'Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago,' reveals a distinctive characteristic of the current cycle: a 'relatively gentle slope down' in long-term holder supply, contrasting with the abrupt declines observed in previous bull market peaks. This 'slow bleed' indicates that investors are gradually liquidating positions, potentially driven by market fatigue, underperformance relative to assets like gold and the S&P, and strategic year-end tax adjustments. CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno supports this view, quantifying a 10-percentage-point reduction in inactive supply, comparable to the 2021 cycle but distributed over a longer timeframe. Kuiper also notes a divergence between 'positive fundamental developments' and the current lackluster price action, suggesting that while the market absorbs this selling pressure, underlying long-term prospects might remain robust. At the time of reporting, BTC traded at $102,609, indicating marginal recovery but still within a context of prevailing selling pressure.