Dogecoin Building Momentum Towards Potential Breakout

NewsBTC reports that Dogecoin ($DOGE) is currently consolidating between $0.17 and $0.21, a range identified by analysts as a crucial 'buy-the-dip' zone. The long-term outlook for $DOGE is decidedly bullish, supported by a multi-month trendline dating back to July 2023, which has consistently seen price rebounds after tests. A key technical signal is the 200-day moving average around $0.21; a sustained break above this level would confirm a significant rally. Analysts like 'ali_charts' project a breakout could send $DOGE soaring to $0.26 or even $0.33. This period of stability is seen not as stagnation, but as momentum building before a potential surge in price.

Bitcoin's Bull Run Pauses Amid Shifting Institutional Flows and High Leverage

In contrast, Bitcoin’s on-chain data presents a more complex picture, suggesting its bull run is currently paused rather than over. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju highlights a rare combination of substantial profits across holder cohorts (averaging 93% unrealized gains), rising realized capitalization, and record network hashrate. Despite these robust fundamentals, price acceleration typical of late-stage bull runs is absent. Ju attributes this to selling pressure absorbing demand, rather than weak demand itself. New inflows primarily originate from ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, but these channels have recently slowed their purchases.

Detailed analysis reveals varied profitability: short-term institutional buyers (ETFs/Custodial Wallets) are near break-even at an average cost basis of $112K, while long-term whales, miners, and Binance traders hold significant embedded profits (cost bases around $43K-$56K). The valuation multiplier (market cap vs. realized cap) remains moderate, indicating neither extreme frothiness nor the exuberant expansion seen at cycle tops. Whales' unrealized profits are not yet extreme, leading to interpretations that either 'hype hasn’t arrived yet' or 'the market is too big for extreme profit ratios' to manifest as before.

However, cautionary signals exist in the microstructure. There's a sharp drop in BTC moving from spot to futures exchanges, suggesting whales are less actively opening new long positions with BTC collateral. Despite recent liquidations, system-wide Bitcoin perpetual leverage remains high. This combination could suppress clean trending behavior, as fewer collateralized longs chase upside while elevated leverage contributes to choppy liquidations.

Hashrate continues to hit new highs, reflecting long-term miner confidence. The short-term market momentum for Bitcoin, according to Ju, hinges on a recovery in buying from ETFs and Strategy channels. The traditional four-year cycle pattern for Bitcoin is also questioned, as new and diverse liquidity sources make future movements harder to predict. At press time, BTC traded around $107,609, indicating a market grappling with strong underlying support but awaiting a fresh demand push to overcome current selling pressure and re-ignite a clear upward trajectory.