Dogecoin's Historical Pattern Points to Bullish Reversal

Dogecoin is currently experiencing low pressure, struggling to build sustained upside momentum amid low bullish sentiment across the market. The meme coin has seen its price action oscillate around the $0.1 support level, with buyers and sellers locked in a tight battle. Despite this, crypto analyst Cryptollica has presented a chart suggesting that Dogecoin may be on the verge of its biggest déjà-vu in history. This analysis highlights a recurring pattern observed multiple times since 2014, with the current market structure mirroring lows seen in previous cycles.

The 'Four-Cycle Pattern' maps Dogecoin’s weekly timeframe from 2014 through early 2026. Four distinct points correspond to periods where DOGE entered deeply oversold conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The first instance (2014-2015) was followed by a strong recovery and expansion. The second (2020) preceded Dogecoin’s historic 2021 rally. The third (2022) marked a bear cycle bottom that found support near similar structures and RSI levels. Now, the fourth circle is projected for early 2026, with the RSI near the low 30 region, consistent with previous cycle bottoms, and price sitting around a horizontal support band that acted as support in late 2024.

The analyst's question, “Coincidence or Math?” underscores the symmetry in these repeating structures, as a significant move has historically followed each time Dogecoin reached comparable oversold conditions on the weekly chart. Every time Dogecoin’s weekly RSI fell below 30, it signaled an exhaustion of selling pressure. Following these oversold phases, DOGE typically formed a base before beginning a sustained climb. If this fourth setup follows previous cycles, an initial phase of stabilization between $0.10 and $0.15 is anticipated, followed by bullish momentum when overall market conditions improve and capital rotates into meme coins. This outlook suggests Dogecoin’s price could reverse from oversold into normal conditions, potentially pushing above $0.2 in the short term.

Bitcoin Manipulation Claims Challenged by Market Structure Experts

A fresh wave of Bitcoin market-manipulation discussions has surfaced on crypto social media, centering around Jane Street, a prominent trading firm. This renewed chatter follows Jane Street's disclosure of adding 7,105,206 shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in Q4 2025, bringing its reported position to 20,315,780 shares. Speculators have linked this disclosure to a long-running rumor about a daily “10AM” sell program, alleging that the same sophisticated desk accumulating IBIT is also actively leaning on BTC and BTC-linked vehicles at a predictable time each morning to create better entry prices.

The allegation suggests that around 10 AM ET, at the US stock market open, large sell volumes hit BTC and related ETF shares, creating panic, triggering liquidations of leveraged longs, and exploiting thin liquidity pockets, after which firms allegedly buy back at lower prices. This pattern reportedly emerged prominently in early November 2025 and continued into early 2026, though Milk Road, an amplifier of the theory, stressed these remain “unverified rumors.”

However, market structure veterans and former hedge fund managers have largely refuted these manipulation claims. Louis LaValle, CEO and co-founder of Frontier Investments, clarified that Jane Street is a lead market maker and Authorized Participant for IBIT. He argued that their holdings are not a directional bet but rather inventory managed to balance the risk of options they write and to meet creation/redemption demand. The ‘Y’ in the options column of the 13F filing, which critics initially seized upon, confirms that the position is delta-hedged, a common practice for market makers to offset risk. Former hedge fund manager Michael Green further elaborated, stating that Jane Street’s position in IBIT is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options and futures positions, confirming they are not “accumulating” a position in Bitcoin in a speculative manner. Other experts, like Nik Bhatia, emphasized that Jane Street owns IBIT to write options, arbitrage, and engage in other quantitative trading strategies to generate profits. Ultimately, the market-maker explanation is deemed more consistent with typical institutional asset management practices, while the “10AM slam” narrative remains an unverified theory circulating within the crypto community.