XRP Price Projections Surge Post-ETF Launch Hopes, Echoing Bitcoin's Trajectory
XRP Price Projections Surge Post-ETF Launch Hopes, Echoing Bitcoin's Trajectory
A crypto analyst, Diana, forecasts XRP could reach between $7 and $24 within 60 days of an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) launch. This projection is based on a supply-absorption model anticipating significant inflows and constrained liquid supply. The model considers various scenarios, with maximum inflows potentially pushing XRP towards the $24 mark. Despite an initial post-Canary XRP ETF dip and a 13.5% weekly decline, Diana attributes this to typical early-stage profit-taking and delayed institutional capital, drawing parallels to Bitcoin's January 2024 ETF rollout which saw a similar pattern before a subsequent surge. The analyst maintains that eventual institutional allocations will drive XRP's next major rally, reinforcing upward pricing dynamics.
XRP ETF Inflow Model Projects Substantial Price Gains
A new pricing model from Diana, a crypto analyst on X, suggests that XRP could climb into the $7–$24 range within 60 days of an ETF launch. This projection is driven by anticipated inflow pressure and the asset’s constrained liquid supply, as detailed in her 'XRP ETF Launch Impact Model'. The framework explores multiple launch scenarios involving five to twenty ETFs, each seeded with $10 million to $45 million, resulting in total inflows ranging from $50 million to $900 million. Such inflows are expected to absorb between 0.08% and 1.50% of XRP’s estimated 60-billion-unit liquid supply, potentially pushing XRP into a thirty-day range of $3.00 to $15.00, and up to $24.00 within sixty days under optimal conditions.
Diana argues that as issuers acquire XRP for underlying exposure, the available float tightens, leading to a supply squeeze and a natural repricing cycle. However, XRP’s current market performance presents a contrast, with the asset trading near $2.14 and posting a 13.5% decline over the week following the successful debut of the Canary XRP ETF. Despite this, Diana views early price weakness as typical during ETF rollout phases, believing the projected inflow dynamics will still position XRP for a sharp upward revaluation once institutional allocations materialize.
Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's ETF Precedent
In a separate analysis, Diana explained the market pattern influencing XRP’s recent behavior. She notes that traders often front-run expected demand ahead of an ETF launch, creating a speculative pre-launch rally. Once the ETF goes live, these early buyers tend to take profits, leading to a sharp dip. Institutional inflows, she clarifies, typically do not arrive on day one due to compliance checks, committee approvals, and allocation cycles, with real capital entering the market weeks later.
Diana cited Bitcoin’s January 2024 ETF rollout as a clear example of this phenomenon. Bitcoin experienced an initial dip at launch but later surged to new highs as regulated inflows matured. She contends that XRP is currently exhibiting a similar early-stage pattern: a weak market following the Canary ETF launch, profit-taking, and a temporary cooling phase. The analyst concludes that as these delayed inflows eventually accumulate, they will reinforce an upward pricing dynamic for XRP’s next major climb.